Pips for Breakfast: January 29, 2026

Gold decided $5,600 was a nice place to visit, but it didn't want to live there.

On This Day

History suggests the last week of January is when fund managers realize their New Year's resolutions were a lie. Rebalancing usually turns the chart into a heart rate monitor after a double espresso. Historically, the end of the month is where the January Effect delivers its final, volatile parting gift.

The Play

Watch USD/JPY around the 08:30 UTC print. If the Unemployment Claims come in higher than the 206K forecast, the dollar might take a seat while the yen gains some rare momentum. We're also looking at Gold. After that brief moon mission to $5,600, the metal is looking for a reason to consolidate. If the Trump and Schumer deal actually moves forward, expect a "risk on" move that could see gold slide further as the "shut down" hedge evaporates.

What's on Deck

USD Unemployment Claims (08:30 UTC): This is the high impact event of the morning. The forecast is 206K, which is a slight tick up from the previous 200K. If we see a surprise spike, the Fed might start getting nervous about the soft landing narrative.

Tokyo Core CPI (18:30 UTC): This is the preview for the national inflation data. The market expects a cool 2.2%. If this comes in hot, the BOJ will have a very difficult time explaining why they're still sitting on their hands.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

AUD/USD: Australia’s terms of trade are lifting thanks to export prices. It's a fundamental win for the Aussie, even if the pair is currently a hostage to broader US dollar sentiment.

GBP/USD: The Xi and Starmer thaw is the geopolitical equivalent of a polite nod across a crowded room. It doesn't mean they're friends, but it's better than the alternative. Watch for Cable to stabilize if the trade rhetoric stays soft.

EUR/USD: The pair remains the poster child for the January Effect. It's historically choppy this week, so don't get married to any breakout that hasn't been retested three times.

Why Your P&L Cares

The reason we watch these late January windows is that they're notorious for "mean reversion" or "the big wash." In previous cycles, this is when the trendy trades of the first two weeks of the year go to die. Large institutions are finishing their month-end adjustments, which means the price action you see might have nothing to do with logic and everything to do with a spreadsheet in a skyscraper.

The January Effect isn't just a myth. It's the result of trillions of dollars moving at once. If you're trading EUR/USD, you're basically standing in the middle of a stampede. In years past, traders who ignored the month-end rebalancing found themselves on the wrong side of a 100-pip move that had zero fundamental catalyst.

The Bottom Line

The government might stay open, the UK and China are talking again, and gold is trying to figure out its own valuation. It's a standard Thursday in the 2026 markets. Keep your stops wide and your expectations low. Now go make some pips. You're fed.