Pips for Breakfast: February 12, 2026

The Bank of Japan is currently watching the Yen with the same intensity a cat watches a laser pointer, and we all know how that usually ends for the furniture.

On This Day

In 2020, UK Chancellor Sajid Javid quit his job because he didn't like his boss's advisors. The pound rallied 100 pips because traders assumed his successor would spend money like a lottery winner in a supercar showroom.

The Play

GBP/USD: Cable is facing a GDP data dump at 02:00 UTC. The market expects a measly 0.1%. If the number prints at zero or negative, the recent relief rally in the pound will likely evaporate. Look for a short entry if we break below the 1.2610 support level.

USD/JPY: Japan's Vice Finance Minister Mimura is back to his usual routine of flagging "urgency" and "close contact" with the US. It's a classic verbal intervention. If the Yen continues to strengthen through the European session, we could see a squeeze toward 147.50 as carry trades get nervous.

What's on Deck

UK GDP (02:00 UTC): This is the main course for the London session. A 0.1% forecast is the economic equivalent of a participation trophy. Anything higher is a shock. Anything lower is a recession headline.

USD Unemployment Claims (08:30 UTC): The forecast is 222K. The Fed wants these numbers to stay steady or climb to justify a pivot. If we see a surprise jump toward 240K, the dollar might finally lose its grip on the steering wheel.

Lunar New Year Prep: China is heading into a massive holiday starting February 16. Expect liquidity in the Aussie and Kiwi to start thinning out as the week progresses.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

EUR/USD: It's currently the beige wallpaper of the forex world. No major data means it'll likely just mirror whatever the Dollar Index does after the US jobs data.

AUD/USD: Watching for a "sell the rumor" move. With Chinese markets closing soon, the upside for the Aussie feels capped unless we get a massive risk-on wave.

UK Housing: RICS house price data came in better than expected at -10. It seems someone is still buying houses in the UK, which might give the BoE a reason to keep rates higher for longer.

Why Your P&L Cares

February has a reputation for being the month where January's trends go to die. We're right in that mid-month window where reversals tend to cluster. History shows that when the market gets too comfortable with a specific narrative, like "the Yen will never recover," the BOJ usually likes to remind everyone that they have a printing press and they aren't afraid to use it.

Back in 2016, the dollar spent mid-February getting pummeled after a massive multi-month run. Today's mix of UK growth figures and US labor stats provides the perfect catalyst for a similar shift in sentiment. If the UK GDP doesn't completely collapse, the "short everything British" trade might need a rethink.

The Bottom Line

The central bankers are chatty and the data is light enough to be dangerous. Watch your stops on the Yen, and don't get married to the GBP trend until the GDP dust settles. Now go make some pips. You're fed.