Pips for Breakfast: February 13, 2026

Today the US CPI print decides if your weekend involves champagne or a very long conversation with your risk manager.

On This Day

In 2013, the G7 issued a statement meant to calm "currency war" fears. It had the opposite effect. The Yen swung 100 pips in minutes as traders realized the world's most powerful bankers were essentially arguing over a thesaurus.

The Play

USD/JPY and USD/CHF: It's CPI day. The market expects a cool 2.5% y/y print. If we get anything north of 2.7%, the "higher for longer" crowd will start screaming again. Watch for a USD breakout if the numbers beat. Conversely, the SNB has its own CPI print today. If Swiss inflation stays flat or dips, CHF/JPY might be the cleanest way to play the divergence between a stalling Europe and a volatile Asia. Keep your stops tight. It's Friday. Nobody wants to carry a loser into Saturday morning.

What's on Deck

CHF CPI (02:30 UTC): Swiss inflation is currently about as exciting as a glass of lukewarm water. A 0.0% forecast means any deviation will cause a disproportionate amount of drama. USD CPI (08:30 UTC): This is the main event. Core m/m is the number the Fed actually stares at while trying to look busy. The Friday Fade: Around 3pm EST, expect the "I'm done for the week" liquidations. If the USD has pumped all day, watch for a late-session profit-taking dip.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

AUD/USD: China's housing market is still in a "death spiral" with prices falling in 62 of 70 cities. The Aussie is trying to hold support, but it's fighting gravity and a very angry property market.
EUR/USD: It's been a choppy week for the fiber. Without major Eurozone data today, it's just a passenger on the USD CPI train.
USD/CAD: Oil prices are twitching on geopolitical noise. If USD rips on CPI, Loonie bulls might finally give up the ghost.

Why Your P&L Cares

This week was dominated by the Yen being a chaotic mess and rumors of the Trump administration scaling back metal tariffs. We've seen a lot of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" price action. Historically, mid-February is where January's big trends go to die or get a second wind. In 2020, the markets were blissfully unaware of the volatility cliff they were about to walk off. Today, we have the added spice of a Friday close. The "weekend risk" is real, especially with Japan arresting Chinese fishing captains and tensions simmering in the EEZ. Geopolitics doesn't take the weekend off, but your liquidity provider does.

The Bottom Line

It's Friday. The week started with Yen intervention whispers and ends with a high-stakes inflation showdown. We've seen the USD regain some swagger while China's property woes continue to weigh on the APAC session. If you're up for the week, protect your capital. The market closes at 5pm EST. Don't be the person trying to exit a massive position at 4:55pm when the liquidity has already gone to the bar. Next week brings more retail sales data and central bank speeches to keep the volatility alive when markets reopen Sunday evening.

Have a profitable close and a restful weekend. You're fed.