Pips for Breakfast: February 15, 2026

In 1971, the UK decided that having 240 pence to a pound was too much math for the average citizen.

On This Day

Today is the anniversary of Decimal Day. Before this, the British pound was divided into 20 shillings, and each shilling into 12 pence. It was a great system for people who enjoyed doing long division in their heads while buying a loaf of bread.

The Play

The theme for the week ahead is the USD/CAD long. While US CPI cooled slightly to 2.4%, Canadian consumer spending data from RBC shows a significant dip. If the US consumer is merely slowing down while the Canadian consumer is actively retreating, the policy divergence trade is back on the menu.

Watch for the Asian session tonight. February has a reputation for mid-month reversals. If USD/JPY fails to find buyers at the open, we might be looking at a broader dollar retreat regardless of what the inflation data says. The play is to wait for the Sunday evening gap, let it fill, and look for a reversal against the January trend.

What's on Deck

ECB President Lagarde Speaks: She is up at 04:30 UTC today. Central bankers love talking on Sundays because they know we have nothing else to do. Watch for any comments on the "sticky" nature of services inflation which could gap the EUR/USD when the clock strikes 5pm EST.

US Supreme Court: They have signaled that next Friday will be a major decision day. Markets generally prefer decisions to be made by Jerome Powell or a black-box algorithm, so expect some headline risk as we head into the end of the week.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

AUD/USD: The "HALO" trade is being touted as the new AI haven. If risk appetite stays high despite the late Friday fade in stocks, the Aussie should find a floor.

GBP/USD: Cable is hovering near key levels. With the decimalization anniversary today, it’s a good time to remember that the pound doesn't need 240 pence to be volatile.

EUR/JPY: This pair is the canary in the coal mine for risk sentiment. If the carry trade starts to unwind during the Asian session tonight, this is where the blood will be first.

Why Your P&L Cares

February is often the month of the "False Start." Historically, the trends that felt like certain bets in January tend to hit a brick wall right around the 15th. We are at that wall.

The US CPI coming in at 2.4% vs 2.5% expected isn't a total collapse, but the fact that stock markets faded late on Friday suggests the "lower inflation is good" narrative is being replaced by "lower inflation means the economy is cooling too fast." When the market stops cheering for lower prices, the vibe has officially shifted.

The Bottom Line

The British pound isn't divided into 240 parts anymore, but your margin account can still be divided into zero if you ignore the mid-month turn. Watch the open tonight for the first sign of the February flip. Now go make some pips. You're fed.