Pips for Breakfast: February 16, 2026

Japan's GDP missed estimates and US markets are closed, leaving the rest of us to pretend that Singapore's export data is the most exciting thing happening on the planet.

On This Day

The Play

The USD/JPY Fade: Japan's GDP miss usually triggers a knee-jerk selloff in the Yen, but with the US out of office, there's nobody to keep the momentum going. Look for a drift back toward the pivot as the "miss" was already priced in by the time you finished your first cup of something caffeinated.

The Singapore Slip: AUD/SGD is seeing some life after the export miss. Even though exports rose 9.3%, they missed the high bar of expectations. If this uneven recovery theme continues, the Aussie might find some rare upward mobility against the SGD, provided China doesn't do anything dramatic.

What's on Deck

US Bank Holiday: Today is Presidents' Day. The NYSE is dark. The Fed is sleeping. Expect the liquidity of a dried up puddle in the Sahara. Most major pairs will likely oscillate in 20-pip ranges while traders wait for the adults to come back to the room tomorrow.

Dollar Rebalancing: Credit Agricole is reminding everyone that the rebalancing theme is still in play. This usually means fund managers are tweaking their portfolios to match their benchmarks. In a low-liquidity environment, these flows can move the needle more than they should.

Quick Pips

EUR/USD: It is currently stuck in a range tighter than a pair of skinny jeans after a holiday weekend. Support is holding, but there's no catalyst to push it through the ceiling.

Gold: The yellow metal is trading sideways. Without US participants, it's basically just a shiny rock sitting in a vault. Watch for a fake-out move if any geopolitical headlines drop during the London afternoon.

GBP/USD: Cable is waiting for a reason to exist. It hasn't found one yet. Expect it to track the Euro's boredom for the next twelve hours.

Why Your P&L Cares

February is the month where January's conviction goes to die. Historically, trends established in the first six weeks of the year start to wobble right about now. This is the "mid-month reversal" window where traders realize they might have over-leveraged on the "New Year, New Me" dollar rally.

Since today is a US holiday, any price action you see is likely a "false start" driven by low volume. In the past, traders who chased breakouts on Presidents' Day often found themselves underwater by Tuesday morning. The smart move is to observe the rebalancing flows without getting your fingers caught in the door.

The Bottom Line

It's a slow day, which is the perfect time to realize that your best trade might be the one you don't take. Don't let a flat chart tempt you into doing something stupid just to feel alive. Now go make some pips. You're fed.