Pips for Breakfast: February 17, 2026

The RBNZ is about to spend an evening explaining why 2.25% is exactly the right amount of expensive.

On This Day

Mid-February is traditionally the graveyard of January trends. Historically, this is the week where the "New Year, New Market" optimism hits the reality of actual data, often resulting in messy reversals that leave breakout traders holding very expensive bags.

The Play

NZD/USD: The RBNZ is the main character tonight. They are widely expected to hold at 2.25%, but the statement is where the bodies are buried. If they even hint at a future cut, the Kiwi will drop faster than a New Year's resolution. Watch for a move toward 0.6050 if the tone is dovish.

USD/CAD: Canada drops a full CPI bucket at 08:30 UTC. If the Median and Trimmed figures come in hotter than the 2.5% forecast, expect the Loonie to claw back some ground against a USD that looks a bit tired. A print above 2.7% on the median core is the "oh no" scenario for CAD shorts.

What's on Deck

GBP Claimant Count (02:00 UTC): This is the first hurdle for Sterling. The forecast is looking for a jump to 22.8K. If the labor market looks like it's catching a cold, the Pound might give back its recent gains before the breakfast dishes are cleared.

CAD CPI (08:30 UTC): The big one for North America. We get four different flavors of CPI at once. It's a lot of math for a Tuesday, but the market only cares if the trend is heading toward 2% or taking a detour.

NZD OCR & Statement (20:00 UTC): This is the high-impact event of the session. Expect volatility in all Kiwi pairs. Low liquidity due to the China and Singapore holidays means the moves could be more exaggerated and erratic than usual.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

USD/JPY: Asia saw a sharp drop while most of the region was on holiday. When the yen moves in an empty room, it's usually a sign that someone knows something or someone's stop-loss just got triggered in a very lonely market.

AUD/USD: We have wage data coming late. Australia is trying to figure out if people are making enough money to keep inflation high. 0.8% is the magic number. Anything higher keeps the RBA in a bad mood.

The China Factor: With China, Singapore, and Hong Kong closed, liquidity in the London and New York sessions will feel a bit thin. Thin markets are like grumpy toddlers. They're unpredictable and prone to sudden outbursts.

Why Your P&L Cares

Seasonality tells us that the middle of February is when the market likes to change its mind. If you've been riding a trend since the first week of January, this is the part of the movie where the music gets tense.

The GBP data and the RBNZ meeting are the perfect catalysts for a "repositioning" phase. Traders often use these mid-month data clusters to book profits and wait for March. If the UK claimant count is a disaster and the RBNZ is soft, the "long Oceania/Europe" trade that worked last week will look very different by Wednesday.

History shows that volatility tends to cluster around these RBNZ statements. It's one of the few central banks that still likes to surprise people, mostly because they can.

The Bottom Line

Today is about navigating thin liquidity and central bank prose. Keep your stops wide and your expectations low. Now go make some pips. You're fed.