Pips for Breakfast: February 24, 2026

Four years ago today, the maps changed and the markets broke, making a 100-pip move look like a rounding error.

On This Day

In 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Global markets responded with the kind of calm and measured logic you'd expect from a panicked herd of gazelles. Gold surged, EUR/USD tanked, and everyone suddenly remembered why they kept JPY on their watchlist.

The Play

The AUD/USD setup: Australia releases its CPI data tonight. If core inflation remains as sticky as the previews suggest, the RBA might stay hawkish while other central banks are eyeing the exit. We're watching the 0.6550 level. A firm beat on the Trimmed Mean CPI could send this pair toward 0.6620, especially if the USD softens after the morning data.

The USD/JPY play: Japan is reportedly mulling a revision to its liquidity support auctions to stop the market from throwing a tantrum. If President Trump leans into Section 232 tariffs during his 21:00 UTC speech, the Yen might actually find some safe-haven buyers. We're looking for a rejection at 150.80.

What's on Deck

GBP: Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 09:15 UTC. Expect Bank of England officials to use a lot of words to say very little, though any hint of a "summer cut" will send Cable lower.

USD: Consumer Confidence and Richmond Manufacturing at 10:00 UTC. The forecast for confidence is 87.6. If it misses, the "recession is coming" crowd will get very loud on social media.

AUD: The main event. CPI y/y drops at 19:30 UTC. Forecast is 3.7%. This is the single biggest mover for the Aussie today.

USD: President Trump speaks at 21:00 UTC. He's reportedly considering new tariffs. Markets usually treat these speeches like a game of Minesweeper. One wrong word and your stop loss is gone.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

Japan trade: China added 20 Japanese firms to its export control list. It's a localized spat for now, but it's not exactly bullish for the Nikkei or regional sentiment.

Tariff uncertainty: The Supreme Court ruling on Section 232 has given the White House more room to move. The market hates uncertainty, but it loves a good trade war headline for volatility.

EUR/USD: It's currently acting like a teenager who won't get out of bed. It needs a catalyst, and today's US data might be the alarm clock it's trying to ignore.

Why Your P&L Cares

February is usually the month where the "new year, new me" trends of January go to die. We're in that window where reversals become common. The historical ghost of 2022 reminds us that geopolitical shocks don't ask for permission before they wreck your account.

While we aren't expecting a full-scale invasion today, the friction between China and Japan over export controls is a reminder that trade relations are currently held together by scotch tape and hope. If the AUD CPI comes in hot and Trump talks tough on tariffs, the carry trade is going to have a very stressful evening.

The Bottom Line

Watch the Aussie data for the technical move, but keep the TV on for the Trump speech if you want to keep your hair. It's a day for tight stops and low expectations for market sanity. Now go make some pips. You're fed.