Pips for Breakfast: February 25, 2026

Australia's inflation is stickier than a movie theater floor, and RBA Governor Bullock is about to take the mic to explain why.

On This Day

In 2021: The US Treasury market had a collective meltdown after a disastrous 7 year note auction. Yields spiked, the USD went on a tear, and traders learned that nobody actually wants to lend the government money for seven years. It was a reminder that even the deepest markets can have a bad day.

The Play

AUD/USD: The play today is a hawkish lean on the Aussie. Inflation came in at 3.8% against the 3.7% expected, which is the economic equivalent of a guest who won't leave your party. If Bullock uses her speech to hint that the RBA is losing its patience, we could see a push toward 0.6650.

USD/JPY: The Nikkei is hitting record highs, which usually means the Yen is being used as a doorstop. However, with Trump's State of the Union being described as lackluster, the USD might lose its momentum. If the dollar softens, look for a mean reversion play on the Yen.

What's on Deck

RBA Governor Bullock Speaks (03:40 UTC): This is the primary catalyst for the Asian session. She has a high impact rating for a reason. Expect her to address the CPI miss and potentially crush any remaining hopes for a spring rate cut.

Post SOTU Fallout: The market is still digesting Trump’s speech. Since he pivoted to a global levy but kept the tone dry, the initial "tariff panic" might subside. Watch for a slight USD pullback as the news is priced in as a nothingburger.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

EUR/USD: The pair is currently about as exciting as watching paint dry. It’s trapped in a tight range, waiting for someone in the Eurozone to say something interesting. Don't hold your breath.

GBP/USD: Cable is tracking the broader dollar sentiment. If the "global levy" talk is viewed as political theater rather than immediate policy, the Pound could catch a bid.

Gold: It’s holding steady. When the political landscape gets weird and inflation stays high, people tend to buy shiny rocks. It's a classic for a reason.

Why Your P&L Cares

Historical Context: February is historically the month where January’s trends either solidify or face a violent reversal. We're seeing a bit of both right now. The Australian inflation data confirms that the global fight against rising prices isn't over, despite what the "soft landing" enthusiasts want you to believe.

The Trump Factor: In previous years, trade talk has been a massive driver for the USD. The fact that the market found his latest speech lackluster is actually a signal in itself. It suggests that the "shock and awe" of tariff threats is starting to see diminishing returns. This opens the door for trade setups based on actual data rather than just headlines.

The Bottom Line

Inflation is stubborn, central bankers are annoyed, and the US political theater is mostly noise today. Focus on the RBA and let the Aussie lead the way. Now go find your edge. You're fed.