Pips for Breakfast: February 26, 2026

The Bank of Japan is acting hawkish again, which is usually the part of the movie where the protagonist realizes the phone call is coming from inside the house.

On This Day

History suggests February is the month where January's trends go to die, or at least start questioning their life choices. We usually see a continuation of the year's opening moves until a mid-month reversal kicks in, leaving late-entry traders holding the bag.

The Play

USD/JPY: Keep an eye on the 150.00 level. Between Ueda's hawkish whispering and the upcoming Tokyo CPI, the Yen is actually showing some backbone. If the Tokyo data surprises to the upside tonight, the carry trade might start looking for the exit.

AUD/USD: The Capex beat gives the Aussie a reason to live. Look for a test of recent resistance if the US labor data comes in soft later today. China's "Two Sessions" planning usually provides a nice floor for the AUD, assuming Beijing doesn't decide to pivot back to extreme austerity.

What's on Deck

ECB President Lagarde Speaks (03:30 UTC): Expect her to be characteristically vague about rate cuts. The Euro usually oscillates nervously during these speeches until everyone realizes she hasn't actually said anything new.

US Unemployment Claims (08:30 UTC): The forecast is 217K. A big miss here would make the Fed's "higher for longer" narrative look like a very expensive typo. This is the high-impact event of the session, so watch for a USD knee-jerk.

Tokyo Core CPI y/y (18:30 UTC): This is the leading indicator for the national print. Forecast is 1.7%. If it prints lower than the previous 2.0%, the JPY rally might find itself out of gas before it even clears the driveway.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

China Two Sessions: Beijing is setting growth targets and 15th Five Year Plan signals. If the fiscal stance looks aggressive, the AUD and NZD are the primary beneficiaries.

NZD/USD: Business confidence is down, but inflation pressures are building. It's the worst of both worlds, yet the RBNZ remains stuck in a hawkish corner. Expect some choppy sideways action until the market decides which piece of bad news it hates more.

Gold (XAU/USD): It's sitting quietly, waiting for the US Jobless data. A high claims number could send it back toward recent highs as the "Fed pivot" crowd finds their voice again.

Why Your P&L Cares

Seasonal patterns in late February often catch people looking the wrong way. Most traders spend the first week of the year setting resolutions that involve following the trend. By now, those trends are either overextended or ready to snap back. It's not a rule written in stone, but it's a recurring theme.

The market likes to punish anyone who thinks they've figured out the year's trajectory by Valentine's Day. Today's US Jobless claims provide the perfect catalyst for a reversal if the numbers don't play along with the soft-landing dream. If claims spike, the USD rally we've seen lately could get a very rude awakening.

The Bottom Line

The BoJ is finally making noise while the US labor market shows its first potential cracks. It's a great day to be a volatility junkie and a terrible day to be a complacent carry trader. Now go make some pips. You're fed.