Pips for Breakfast: March 18, 2026

Today is FOMC day, the quarterly ritual where the world's most powerful accountants tell us what they think might happen while praying it actually does.

On This Day

In 2015, EUR/USD decided it was tired of gravity. The Fed removed the word patient from its statement, but the tone was so dovish the dollar dropped faster than a lead balloon. The pair moved 4% in a single session because the market realized the Fed was allergic to its own hiking cycle.

The Play

The volatility sandwich is served today with a side of Canadian interest rates. USD/CAD is the pair to watch. With both the BOC and the Fed announcing rates within hours of each other, any divergence in the dot plots or the tone of the press conferences will send this pair on a one-way trip. If the BOC holds steady at 2.25% but the Fed hints at a sooner-than-expected pivot, the Loonie might finally have its moment.

EUR/USD bulls are looking at 2015 history books for inspiration. The 1.0950 level is the line in the sand. If the PPI data at 08:30 UTC comes in soft, it sets the stage for a dollar liquidation before Powell even takes the podium. Keep your stops wide or your expectations low.

What's on Deck

USD Core PPI (08:30 UTC): The forecast is 0.3%. If this prints higher, the Fed might have to find a new word for patient.

BOC Rate Statement (09:45 UTC): Markets expect 2.25%. The real fun begins at 10:30 during Macklem’s presser, where he'll try to explain why the Canadian housing market is definitely not a bubble.

FOMC Decision & Projections (14:00 UTC): No change in the 3.75% rate is expected. The "Dot Plot" is the main event. It's essentially a game of connect-the-dots for adults that determines the value of everything you own.

NZD GDP (17:45 UTC): For those who enjoy trading in the dark, New Zealand's growth figures arrive late. Expecting 0.5%, but anything lower will make the Kiwi look very flightless.

The Data Behind the Patterns View Packages →

Quick Pips

USD/JPY: We're approaching the Japanese fiscal year-end. Repatriation flows usually mean the Yen gets a boost, even if the fundamentals suggest it shouldn't. Watch for sudden, unexplained Yen strength.

Nasdaq Futures: Buyers are defending support like it's their childhood home. The bullish repair is in progress, but a hawkish Fed could renovate those charts into a basement.

WTI Oil: Prices are drifting lower. Headlines about a projectile near an Iranian nuclear plant caused a momentary spike, but the lack of damage has traders back to focusing on Iraqi pipeline news.

Why Your P&L Cares

Markets love a good rhyme. In 2015, the Fed thought they were being clear, but the market heard "we're not hiking anytime soon" and punished the dollar. Today’s economic projections provide the same trapdoor risk. If the "dots" move lower for late 2026, the dollar sell-off will be swift.

We're also entering the quarter-end flow window. This is the time of year when pension funds and large institutions move massive blocks of capital to balance their books. It often results in "zombie" price action where pairs move against the news for no apparent reason other than a spreadsheet said so.

The Bottom Line

It's a big day for people who like charts and a terrible day for people who like sleep. Between the PPI appetizer, the BOC main course, and the FOMC dessert, there's a lot for the market to digest. Don't get married to a position before Powell speaks. Now go make some pips. You're fed.